Many people assume the climate crisis is simply a change in the weather, something that can be addressed by lowering the air conditioning or avoiding the hot sun. In reality, there are hidden dangers that are eroding human life, especially vulnerable groups.
Increasingly massive climate change makes the earth vulnerable to various serious threats that endanger human life, ranging from increasing disaster intensity to the spread of disease.
Between 2022 and 2026, there is expected to be one year in which the global average temperature will exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius increase limit compared to the pre-industrial era of 1850 and 1900. This temperature increase is believed to worsen environmental carrying capacity and shrink human living space.
Economic Losses Due to the Climate Crisis
Climate change not only directly increases the intensity of disasters, such as floods and droughts, but also indirectly impacts crop failures, food crises, and poverty. These factors, in turn, contribute to worsening the national economy.
Based on projections by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the impact of climate change in Indonesia has the potential to cause losses of up to 3.5% of national GDP by 2100. For example, losses in the agricultural and coastal sectors due to climate change are estimated to reach 2.2% of total GDP in the same year (ADB 2009). Furthermore, the increasing frequency of disasters triggered by climate change also contributes to economic losses of 0.3% of GDP (ADB 2009).
The revised study of the National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation (RAN-API) shows that in 2020, economic losses in four priority sectors (marine and coastal, water, agriculture, and health) reached IDR 102.36 trillion or around 0.61% of the 2020 GDP target. This figure is projected to increase to IDR 115.53 trillion in 2024.
Projections of the economic impact of climate change in 2030 estimate losses in meeting basic needs to reach 0.66% to 3.45% of national GDP, with an average impact of 2.87% of GDP. This analysis includes losses from disasters such as the spread of disease from floods, landslides, and drought, as well as damage to agricultural crops due to flooding.
The sustainability of basic needs sectors is highly dependent on ecosystem stability. Disasters that disrupt ecosystem services can result in significant economic losses in these sectors. Combined with the damage to ecosystem services and the impacts of disasters, the potential economic losses are estimated to reach IDR 4,328.38 trillion.
Social Stability Shocks
The climate crisis not only causes economic losses but also exacerbates social inequality. Disrupted productivity among farmers and fishermen has caused food prices to soar, leading to increased inflation, declining Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and even increasing the poverty line.
The impacts of climate change are also disproportionately felt by the most vulnerable groups in the Asia-Pacific region, who generally have limited capacity and resources to cope with shocks. Vulnerable groups such as women, children, the elderly, people with disabilities, smallholder farmers, traditional fishers, informal workers, laborers, and indigenous communities face higher risks, ultimately exacerbating social inequalities over time.
This is because vulnerable groups tend to experience inequality and limitations in terms of access to resources, social protection, and rights, while also having limited capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change, making recovery more difficult and potentially increasing the risk of social conflict. The climate crisis also triggers mass migration due to the loss of livelihoods and shelter, which in turn can cause social tensions in migration destinations.
Neglected Children's Rights
Children are among the most vulnerable groups facing the greatest risks from the climate crisis. Nearly all children worldwide are exposed to at least one form of climate- and environmental-related hazard, such as heat waves, cyclones, air pollution, flooding, and water scarcity.
More than a third of the world's children, approximately 820 million, are highly exposed to heat waves, which could worsen as global temperatures rise. As many as 400 million children are highly exposed to cyclones. This situation could worsen with the increasing frequency of high-intensity cyclones, rainfall intensity, and shifts in cyclone patterns.
Meanwhile, nearly 90 percent of the world's child population, or approximately 2 billion children, currently have high exposure to air pollution, with pollutant concentrations exceeding 10µg/m3. This situation has the potential to worsen if there is no reduction in the burning of fossil fuels, the primary cause of air pollution. Similarly, flooding and clean water scarcity impact the living space of hundreds of millions of children worldwide.
Indonesia ranks 46th out of 163 countries worldwide for its most vulnerable child population. Climate and environmental hazards negatively impact children's access to essential services, significantly reducing their resilience and adaptive capacity, which in turn can increase their vulnerability to climate- and environmental-related hazards.
Every Decision Affects the Future
The climate crisis is a multidimensional challenge that significantly impacts the economy, social stability, and justice for vulnerable communities. Therefore, collective efforts and equitable policies are needed to mitigate the impacts of climate change and protect all communities.
In the face of the increasingly visible impacts of the climate crisis, social protection plays a vital role in enhancing community resilience and reducing vulnerability. As a key policy tool, social protection serves to address poverty indirectly caused by the climate crisis.
Furthermore, social protection also plays a strategic role in supporting climate change adaptation and mitigation. These policies contribute to reducing social inequality, mitigating the impact of economic shocks, reducing production losses, increasing demand and economic activity, and fostering human resource development and workforce participation.
The success of these efforts depends, in part, on adequate climate finance. Unfortunately, the outcomes of the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) on Climate Change, originally expected to be a landmark moment for climate finance, have not lived up to expectations. Developed countries have only committed to mobilizing US$300 billion in climate finance annually by 2035, far short of the US$2.5 trillion requested by developing countries.
Therefore, as a developing country, Indonesia needs to take proactive steps to reform and expand its social protection system to support climate change adaptation and mitigation, maintain economic and social stability, and ensure climate justice for all levels of society.
Reference
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