Changes in forest land cover due to the expansion of palm oil plantations can impact the ecological conditions of the area. The expansion of palm oil plantations can affect the decline of ecosystem services such as the reduction of biodiversity-supporting services, food provision services, disaster regulation services (increased flood risks), as well as climate regulation services (changes in air temperature) (Amalia et al., 2019).

Changes in forest land cover resulting from palm oil plantation expansion can also affect the achievement of the FOLU Net Sink 2030 target, emission reduction targets in the Enhanced NDC 2030, and the climate-resilient low-carbon development targets in the RPJPN 2025–2045 due to carbon emissions release.

Therefore, it is necessary to study the upper limit (cap) value of palm oil plantation coverage based on the perspective of Environmental Carrying Capacity and Assimilative Capacity (D3TLH) as an effort to limit the expansion of palm oil plantations to maintain a balance that supports human life and other living beings.