The climate crisis is increasingly in the global spotlight. To keep global temperature rise from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, countries party to the Paris Agreement are being urged to strengthen their climate commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
On 23 September 2022, Indonesia updated its climate commitment by submitting an Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (ENDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Under the ENDC, Indonesia increased its unconditional greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target from 29 percent to 31.89 percent, while the conditional target, with international support, rose from 41 percent to 43.20 percent.
The Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) sector and the Energy sector together account for 94 percent of Indonesia’s total GHG emission reduction target under the unconditional ENDC.
READ ALSO: Notes on Making the Forestry and Land-Use Sector in the Second NDC More Ambitious
Despite these increases, the level of ambition in Indonesia’s ENDC does not yet fully align with global efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The continued use of a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario risks producing inaccurate future emissions projections. In addition, the reference levels for deforestation—both planned and unplanned—remain excessively high. The ENDC also falls short in fully integrating climate justice as a core approach to addressing climate change.
What Needs to Be Addressed in the Second NDC?
The Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK) is currently preparing Indonesia’s Second NDC, which is scheduled to be submitted to the UNFCCC in August 2024.
Civil society organizations have put forward several recommendations to ensure that the Second NDC is more ambitious and equitable, including:
Raising GHG emission reduction targets to align with the 1.5°C pathway. The required level of ambition is a 60 percent reduction from the BAU scenario by 2030, or 26 percent below 2022 emission levels for the unconditional target (excluding the AFOLU sector). For the conditional target, ambition should be increased to a 62 percent reduction from BAU, or 28 percent below 2022 emission levels (excluding AFOLU).
Replacing the BAU scenario with relative emission levels based on 2019 data.
Eliminating any remaining allowance for natural forest deforestation.
Strengthening environmental integrity, including transparency, accuracy, completeness, comparability, consistency, and the prevention of double counting.
Developing a transparent monitoring and evaluation system that is publicly accessible.
Integrating climate justice principles into climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Enhancing transparency and participation in the NDC formulation process to better reflect the differentiated impacts and vulnerabilities of at-risk groups.
By incorporating these recommendations, Indonesia’s Second NDC is expected to become a stronger, fairer, and more credible response to the global climate crisis.
