The Government of Indonesia is currently preparing its Second Nationally Determined Contribution (SNDC) as part of its efforts to address global climate change. This document marks an important milestone in Indonesia’s commitment to tackling global warming. The SNDC serves as an update to the previous commitment, namely the Enhanced NDC (ENDC).

Although several other sectors have increased their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets in the ENDC, the Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) sector remains the primary pillar, accounting for approximately 55 percent of the unconditional emission reduction target.

Before the SNDC is submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat, several aspects of the ENDC should be reviewed to strengthen the FOLU sector’s commitment.

Setting a More Ambitious Emission Reduction Target

There is still room to increase the FOLU emission reduction target to make it more ambitious and aligned with Indonesia’s FOLU Net Sink 2030 target. The ambition under FOLU Net Sink 2030 is significantly higher than that in the ENDC, targeting –140 MtCO₂e, while the ENDC only targets –15 MtCO₂e. Therefore, the FOLU ambition in the SNDC needs to be enhanced to align with global efforts to limit temperature rise to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Read also: Meeting Energy Sector Ambition—The Second NDC Must Not Sacrifice Forests and Land

Reducing the Deforestation Quota

The ENDC still allows considerable room for deforestation—359,000 hectares per year under the unconditional scenario and 175,000 hectares per year with international support. These targets are not aligned with global efforts to halt deforestation by 2030, nor do they reflect Indonesia’s recent success in reducing deforestation rates.

To achieve the FOLU Net Sink 2030 target, Indonesia effectively has no remaining room for natural forest deforestation. Therefore, the SNDC could become more ambitious by reducing—or even eliminating—the deforestation quota, particularly for natural forests.

Increasing the Peatland Restoration Target

Protecting and restoring peatland ecosystems is a key strategy for reducing emissions in the FOLU sector and is also critical for preventing forest and land fires.

Under the ENDC, the peatland restoration target by 2030 is 2 million hectares, which is lower than the 2.72 million hectares target set under FOLU Net Sink 2030.

To strengthen climate commitments in the FOLU sector, the peatland restoration target in the SNDC should be increased. This could be achieved by incorporating previously burned areas that are not yet included as restoration priorities—particularly those located within concession and permit areas.

Aligning Energy Sector Emission Reduction Policies with the FOLU Sector

Emission reduction policies in the energy sector under the Second NDC must be aligned to avoid increasing land-use change pressures that could undermine ambition in the FOLU sector.

Key ENDC energy targets that require review include biomass use, palm oil–based biofuel (FAME), electric vehicles, and renewable energy expansion—including electrification.

By 2030, the ENDC targets 9 million tons of biomass for co-firing. Research indicates that meeting current wood pellet demand for co-firing would require additional land at least 35 times the size of Jakarta.

Read also: Is It Important for the Government to Prepare the Second NDC?

The ENDC also targets 18 million kiloliters of FAME under the B40 biofuel mandate. If biofuel feedstocks continue to rely primarily on palm oil, as stated in the ENDC, the risks of land conversion and threats to natural forests cannot be fully eliminated. In 2023 alone, 30,000 hectares of forest were converted to oil palm plantations, marking an increase from the previous year.

Nickel industry expansion for electrification also poses risks to remaining natural forests. Approximately 500,000 hectares of natural forest remain within nickel mining and smelter concession areas.

Potential forest conversion also stems from plans to develop 2 million hectares of sugarcane plantations for bioethanol in Merauke, South Papua.

Therefore, it is essential to align energy and FOLU targets in the SNDC by incorporating an integrated upstream-to-downstream roadmap, strengthening regulations to protect all remaining natural forests and peat ecosystems, and embedding circular economy principles within the SNDC framework.

By strengthening these four areas, the SNDC can become a more robust step toward safeguarding Indonesia’s forests and protecting its people from the adverse impacts of climate change.