Forest and land fires (Karhutla) in the first quarter of this year have surged significantly. Based on the Indicative Burned Area (AIT) model developed by Yayasan MADANI Berkelanjutan since 2019, the total indicative burned area increased threefold year-on-year (January–April period), rising from 12,952 hectares in 2023 to 41,982 hectares in 2024.

This sharp increase warrants serious attention from all stakeholders, particularly the government, which holds primary responsibility for disaster prevention and response related to forest and land fires.

At the provincial level, the cumulative AIT model shows a correlation coefficient of 97.37 percent with SIPONGI (Forest and Land Fire Monitoring System) data managed by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK).

The AIT model developed by MADANI is designed to identify hotspot patterns with specific characteristics that strongly indicate burned areas. Raw hotspot data have limitations, particularly in distinguishing between fire-related hotspots and non-fire heat sources. However, the MADANI AIT model filters and includes only hotspots associated with forest and land fires, thereby producing more accurate estimates.

According to MADANI’s AIT data, 87.5 percent of the indicative burned area—equivalent to approximately 35,000 hectares—was concentrated in ten provinces, namely: North Sumatra, West Sumatra, North Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, Riau Islands, Aceh, West Kalimantan, Riau, and East Kalimantan.