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The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) between Indonesia and the United States, which has yet to be ratified, is widely viewed as a threat to Indonesia's national climate commitments and its long-term energy transition. Although the agreement is intended to reduce export tariffs on key commodities such as coffee, palm oil, and cocoa, the full ART document reveals a highly imbalanced structure, containing 217 obligations for Indonesia compared to only six obligations for the United States. The agreement is seen as locking Indonesia into long-term dependence on fossil fuels through commitments to purchase USD 15 billion worth of U.S. crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and gasoline, while also requiring investment in infrastructure to support U.S. coal exports to global markets.

At the same time, the agreement risks accelerating environmental degradation under the banner of "green energy" by promoting mandatory bioethanol blending targets without requiring sustainability standards or safeguards for carbon-rich ecosystems. To meet projected production targets, large-scale plantation expansion is now encroaching on natural forests in Merauke, Papua, where more than 22,000 hectares of ecosystems have been cleared in just 18 months. If the project proceeds as planned, emissions resulting from this land conversion are estimated to reach 315 million metric tons of CO₂, directly jeopardizing Indonesia's goal of achieving Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) Net Sink 2030.