Many people think that the climate crisis is merely a matter of changing weather something that can be solved by lowering the air conditioning temperature or avoiding the scorching sun. In reality, there are latent dangers that are eroding human life, especially among vulnerable groups.

The increasingly massive climate changes make Earth susceptible to serious threats that endanger human life, ranging from heightened disaster intensity to the spread of disease.

Between 2022 and 2026, it is estimated that there will be at least one year in which the global average temperature exceeds a 1.5 °C increase above the pre‑industrial era (1850–1900). Such a rise is believed to worsen environmental carrying capacity and narrow human living space.

Economic Losses from the Climate Crisis

Climate change not only directly increases the intensity of disasters, such as floods and droughts, but also indirectly leads to poor harvests, food crises, and increased poverty. These factors, in turn, further weaken the national economy.

According to projections by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the impact of climate change in Indonesia could result in losses of up to 3.5% of national GDP by 2100. As an example, losses in the agricultural sector and coastal areas due to climate change are estimated at 2.2% of total GDP in the same year (ADB 2009). Additionally, the increasing frequency of climate‑related disasters is projected to contribute a 0.3% GDP loss (ADB 2009).

A revised assessment of the National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation (RAN‑API) shows that in 2020, economic losses in four priority sectors (marine and coastal, water, agriculture, and health) reached IDR 102.36 trillion or approximately 0.61% of the 2020 GDP target. This figure is projected to rise to IDR 115.53 trillion in 2024.

By 2030, the projected economic impact of climate change on meeting basic needs is estimated at between 0.66% and 3.45% of national GDP, with an average impact of 2.87% of GDP. This includes losses caused by disasters such as disease outbreaks from floods, landslides, droughts, and crop damage from flooding.

The sustainability of basic need sectors heavily depends on ecosystem stability. Disruptions to ecosystem services can lead to significant economic losses in these areas. When combined with ecosystem service degradation and disaster impacts, the total economic loss is projected to reach IDR 4,328.38 trillion.

Disruptions to Social Stability

The climate crisis not only causes economic losses but also deepens social inequality. Declining productivity among farmers and fishers leads to rising food prices, which in turn drives inflation, reduced GDP, and increased poverty.

In the Asia Pacific region, vulnerable groups who often lack capacity and resources to cope bear the brunt of climate change. These include women, children, the elderly, persons with disabilities, smallholder farmers, traditional fishers, informal workers, laborers, and indigenous communities. They face higher risks that exacerbate social inequality over time.

Vulnerable populations also tend to have unequal access to resources, social protection, and rights, as well as limited capacity to respond to climate impacts, making recovery more difficult and increasing the risk of social conflict. The climate crisis can trigger mass migration due to loss of livelihoods and homes, potentially leading to social tensions in destination areas.

Neglected Children’s Rights

Children are among the most vulnerable groups and face the greatest risks from the climate crisis. Nearly every child worldwide is exposed to at least one form of climate or environment related hazard, such as heatwaves, cyclones, air pollution, floods, and water scarcity.

More than one third of the world’s children about 820 million are highly exposed to heatwaves, a threat likely to worsen with rising global temperatures. Around 400 million children face high exposure to cyclones. This exposure may intensify with increased cyclone frequency, rainfall intensity, and shifting cyclone patterns.

Meanwhile, nearly 90% of the global child population around 2 billion children are highly exposed to air pollution above 10 µg/m³. This is likely to get worse if fossil fuel combustion continues unabated. Flooding and lack of access to clean water also threaten the living conditions of hundreds of millions of children worldwide.

Indonesia ranks 46th out of 163 countries in terms of its child population’s climate vulnerability. Climate and environmental hazards that undermine children’s access to essential services significantly weaken their resilience and adaptive capacity, increasing their susceptibility to further harm.

Every Decision Impacts the Future

The climate crisis is a multidimensional challenge that significantly affects the economy, social stability, and justice for vulnerable populations. Therefore, collective efforts and fair policies are required to reduce climate impacts and protect all communities.

In coping with increasingly real climate impacts, social protection plays a vital role in strengthening community resilience and reducing vulnerability. As a major policy tool, social protection helps address poverty that is indirectly caused by the climate crisis.

Moreover, social protection plays a strategic role in supporting climate adaptation and mitigation. These policies contribute to reducing social inequality, buffering economic shocks, decreasing production losses, increasing demand and economic activity, as well as developing human capital and labor participation.

The success of these efforts partly depends on adequate climate funding. Unfortunately, the outcome of the 29th Conference of Parties (COP‑29) on Climate Change expected to be a key moment for climate finance fell short. Developed countries committed to mobilizing only USD 300 billion per year by 2035, far less than the real need of USD 2.5 trillion proposed by developing countries.

Therefore, as a developing country, Indonesia must take proactive steps to reform and expand its social protection system to support climate adaptation and mitigation, maintain economic and social stability, and ensure climate justice for all segments of society.

References

• Abidin, M. Zainul. (2023). Climate Change and Social Protection. Retrieved from Kompas on 16 October 2023.
• Budianto, Yoesep. (2023). Climate Crisis Threatening Human Survival. Retrieved from Kompas on 4 June 2023.
• Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR). (2024). Post COP‑29: Indonesia Needs Stronger Climate Policy and Energy Transition Funding. Retrieved on 5 December 2024.
• Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Republic of Indonesia. (2024). Economic Projections of Climate Change. Retrieved on 4 December 2024.
• UNICEF. (2021). Climate Crisis is a Children’s Rights Crisis.
• Urban, Stefan. (2024). Social Protection Amidst Climate Change. Retrieved on 5 December 2024.