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This report highlights a critical contradiction in Indonesia’s development trajectory: the introduction of new environmental regulations, such as the Carbon Economic Value mechanism (Presidential Regulation No. 110/2025) and Mangrove Ecosystem Protection (Government Regulation No. 27/2025), alongside the government’s massive plan to allocate 20.6 million hectares of forest areas for food and energy projects, which, according to Madani’s analysis, poses a high risk of triggering deforestation. This extractive development model has exceeded the environment’s carrying capacity, as evidenced by nearly 3,000 hydrometeorological disasters throughout 2025, culminating in deadly ecological disasters caused by Cyclone Senyar in Sumatra. These events affirm that ecological limits have now become the political limits of the state.

The publication concludes that the scale of these disasters is not merely the result of weather anomalies, but rather the accumulation of risks produced by structural policies that prioritize exploitation. The existing 2025 policy package is deemed inadequate, as it merely reinforces administrative layers without addressing the systemic causes rooted in asymmetric power relations. The report’s central reflection is that future development can no longer be determined by how much space remains available for exploitation, but by how much space is still capable of sustaining life.