The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States is, in some ways, a nightmare for the environmental and climate change movements. Through various media, activists and civil society organizations are warning the world to prepare for a return to uncertainty. Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change continue to erode.
This nightmare was triggered by Trump's statements during the campaign and his 100-day agenda. During his campaign, he called climate change a hoax spread by China.
He openly emphasized that he would cancel all executive orders (a kind of presidential decree) issued by President Barack Obama, including the US's move to ratify the Paris Agreement on September 3 2016.
The Paris Agreement, resulting from COP-21 in Paris, France, from November 30 to December 12, 2015, is being touted as a new global breakthrough in working together to keep global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, or, if possible, 1.5 degrees Celsius, this century. This compares to temperatures during the Industrial Revolution of the 1850s.
On November 4, 2016, four days before the COP-22 Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh, Morocco, the Paris Agreement was declared into force. Five years earlier than expected.
The speed of the ratification process is inseparable from the steps of the US which emitted 17.56 million giga tons (2010) of CO2 equivalent and joined and committed to reducing emissions by almost a third (26-28 percent) compared to 2005 emissions by 2025. In addition, China also unexpectedly ratified and committed to reducing its emissions.
Combined, the emissions of these two countries plus those of other countries equal 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. This qualifies the Paris Agreement to enter into force.
According to Greenpeace Indonesia Country Director Leonard Simanjuntak, it's highly possible that Trump will actually implement a policy of withdrawing from ratification of the Paris Agreement. If that happens, while not exactly the same, it would be reminiscent of US President George W. Bush's decision to refuse to join the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
In his promise, Trump also stated that he would eliminate taxes for climate change programs. Much of this funding also flows into Indonesia through various donor agencies.
Trump will also revive the coal-fired power plant industry, which President Obama began gradually shifting toward clean power generation. He will also increase oil and gas production.
On the sidelines of COP-22 in Morocco, US negotiators declined to comment to the press regarding these concerns. However, two weeks earlier, the US had expressed hope that the conference would proceed as scheduled, regardless of Washington's decision.
Hard times
Greenpeace International officially declared that the US is facing difficult times. "Greenpeace and millions of people around the world have the power to fight climate change. Let's use this moment to gather our energy to fight climate change and for human rights around the world," wrote Annie Leonard, Executive Director of Greenpeace USA.
Fabby Tumiwa, a member of the Indonesian delegation, contacted in Marrakesh on Thursday (November 10th), said Trump has three years to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. "It seems there will be a change in the US's negotiating position in next year's climate talks (COP-23), after Trump is effectively inaugurated as president in January 2017," said the Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform.
He suspects the US will struggle to implement the funding, capacity building, and technology transfer support stipulated in the Paris Agreement. If this happens, he fears the implementation of the Paris Agreement will be hampered.
"If the US withdraws from the agreement, it will be difficult for the world to achieve the below-2°C target, given the significant US emissions," he said. The good news is that in recent years, several US states have adopted progressive policies on climate change and clean energy. If state governments are consistent, they could potentially mitigate the "Trump effect" on global emissions.
Giorgio Budi Indrarto, an activist from the Madani Foundation, expressed an optimistic view. He viewed Trump's campaign rhetoric of climate change denial as a vote-gaining tactic. Campaign promises and their implementation could differ once elected.
For example, during his second term in office in 2008, Obama called for the closure of Guantanamo Bay. The camp remains operational to this day.
"Trump will remain a true climate denier, but his tone will be very different from his campaign. Now he will employ ethical diplomacy, meaning his climate programs will certainly have an impact. But that doesn't mean they will be completely destroyed," he said.
As a businessman turned president, Trump is expected to see global business opportunities in climate-friendly development efforts. Moreover, the US has long made climate a business.
Global negotiations continue. A new president of a major power has been elected. This will have a significant impact on global climate negotiations.
Kompas print, November 11, 2016
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