[Jakarta, April 9, 2021] The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), Madani Berkelanjutan, ICLEI–Local Governments for Sustainability Indonesia, WALHI, and Thamrin School urged the government to adopt a more ambitious climate pathway in line with the Paris Agreement during an online discussion titled “Indonesia Can Achieve Carbon Neutrality Before 2070.”

Indonesia’s limited ambition to reach net zero emissions by 2050 is reflected in the Long-Term Strategy on Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (LTS-LCCR 2050) prepared by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK). The document states that Indonesia aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2070 to help keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C—meaning Indonesia would be 20 years behind the timeline implied by the Paris Agreement.

Concerns Over Delayed Ambition

Yuyun Harmono, Climate Justice Campaign Manager at WALHI, warned that such delays could harm developing countries, especially if carbon trading and carbon capture are relied upon as primary tools to achieve net zero.

“There are many loopholes that allow countries to avoid ambitious emissions reductions, such as offsetting carbon through developing countries rather than transforming business models structurally. If this approach is chosen, developing countries will bear a double burden—offset obligations from developed countries alongside their own emissions reduction targets,” Yuyun explained.

The LTS-LCCR 2050 identifies five major emission sectors under Indonesia’s NDC, yet only the Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) sector is projected to reach net sink status by 2030. Meanwhile, the energy sector is expected to peak emissions only in 2030.

Stronger Targets Needed in Energy and Forestry

IESR’s analysis shows Indonesia could achieve carbon neutrality before 2050 by reducing emissions in electricity generation, transport, and industry—sectors responsible for 406.8 million tons CO₂e, or about 93% of total energy sector emissions in 2015.

According to Deon Arinaldo, Energy Transformation Program Manager at IESR:

• Renewable energy could reach 69% of primary energy mix by 2050;

• Renewable capacity should increase to at least 24 GW by 2025;

• By 2050, renewable generation capacity should reach 408–450 GW;

• No new coal-fired power plants should be built after 2025, and gas plants should be retired early.

Global modeling aligned with the Paris Agreement suggests coal’s share in power generation should fall to 5–10% by 2030, and clean fuels should make up 20–25% of transport energy demand by 2030. However, Indonesia’s LTS-LCCR 2050 projects that by 2050 coal would still account for 34%, gas 25%, oil 8%, and renewables only 33% of primary energy—representing just a 10% increase in renewable targets over 25 years.

Zero Deforestation as a Strategic Imperative

In the forestry sector, the most ambitious LTS-LCCR scenario allows annual natural forest deforestation of:

• 241,000 hectares per year (2010–2030)

• 99,000 hectares per year (2031–2050)

This would permit conversion of around 7 million hectares of natural forest (over 12 times the size of Bali) between 2010 and 2050. Since Indonesia already lost 4.9 million hectares of natural forest between 2010–2020, the remaining deforestation quota for the next 30 years is only 2 million hectares, or 71,000 hectares per year.

Although Indonesia has reduced deforestation for four consecutive years, this progress is not yet sufficient.

“To achieve carbon neutrality before 2070, Indonesia must adopt the most ambitious scenario and lower its deforestation quota in the Updated NDC—potentially even to zero—since much of the allowable quota has already been consumed over the past decade,” said Anggalia Putri, Knowledge Management Manager at Yayasan Madani Berkelanjutan.

Strengthening the moratorium on new permits to cover all remaining natural forests would significantly reduce deforestation risks. Madani’s preliminary analysis identifies 9.4 million hectares of natural forest outside concessions, social forestry allocation areas (PIAPS), and the PIPPIB moratorium map that must be urgently protected from new permits.

Protecting natural forests already within concessions is equally critical for meeting climate targets.

Peatland Restoration as a Climate Lever

Comprehensive peatland protection is also essential. Nearly 498,500 hectares of peatland burned in 2019 were not included in the 2016–2020 restoration targets. All peatlands burned in 2019—both inside and outside concessions—must be incorporated into the 2021–2024 restoration targets to prevent recurring fires and ensure the FOLU sector becomes a net sink by 2030.

The Strategic Role of Local Governments

Serious mitigation and adaptation efforts must be embedded in the LTS-LCCR 2050 to encourage stronger local government commitments toward inclusive and sustainable development.

ICLEI Indonesia believes Indonesia, supported by 34 provincial governments and 514 district/city governments, can achieve carbon neutrality before 2070 by strengthening multi-level governance and engaging legislatures and the private sector in setting more ambitious targets.

“Several local governments we support have already committed to climate action through both adaptation and mitigation efforts. They recognize climate change as an inevitable agenda that must be addressed proactively,” said Ari Mochamad, Country Manager of ICLEI Indonesia.

According to UN-Habitat, 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions originate from urban activities, positioning local governments as critical actors. Indonesia must treat local governments as the ‘Heart of the National Strategy’ to achieve NDC targets and long-term carbon neutrality.

To enable this, the national government must provide:

• Stronger enabling frameworks and streamlined climate finance access;

• Capacity-building for emissions accounting and adaptation monitoring;

• Clear guidelines for transformative planning and green technology adoption;

• Standardized indicators for tracking climate budgets and easier access to grants and loans.

Media Contacts

• Lisa Wijayani, Green Economy Program Manager, IESR
  lisa@iesr.or.id | +62 811 820 1828

• Anggalia Putri, Knowledge Management Manager, Yayasan Madani Berkelanjutan
  anggi@madaniberkelanjutan.id | +62 856 2118 997

• Ari Mochamad, Country Manager, ICLEI Indonesia
  ari.mochamad@iclei.org

• Yuyun Harmono, Climate Justice Campaign Manager, WALHI
  harmono@gmail.com