Background & Current Situation

August, a month meant to celebrate national independence and freedom, turned into a bleak month for Indonesia. As echoes of independence resounded across the country, an extreme surge in forest and land fires (karhutla) erupted dramatically at the exact same time. According to Indicative Burned Area (AIT) modeling released by Madani Berkelanjutan, the estimated burned area drastically spiked from 100.7 thousand hectares in July 2026 to 1.32 million hectares in just one month in August 2026.

This surge was no surprise, as it had been predicted. Since early in the year, the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) had issued early warnings regarding the threat of an extreme dry season in 2026, projected to be drier than average. On a cumulative basis from January to August 2026, the national total AIT surpassed 1.35 million hectares. Of that figure, approximately 37.2 thousand hectares experienced repeated monthly fires, while another 1.32 million hectares were new areas scorched by flames.

Anatomy of the Crisis: Fires in State-Controlled Areas

A massive irony unfolds when the spatial anatomy of the 2026 forest and land fires is dissected. Of the 1.32 million hectares of newly burned area during this period, 59.96% equivalent to 792.4 thousand hectares occurred directly within the Forest Area (Kawasan Hutan), a zone legally under the full control and supervisory authority of the state. Meanwhile, burned areas outside the designated forest zones accounted for 529.0 thousand hectares (40.04%).

Indicative Burned Area (AIT) Distribution within Forest Areas (Jan–Aug 2026)

When broken down by function, Production Forests were the largest contributor, covering 600 thousand hectares (a sharp spike in August from 44.9 thousand hectares in July). However, the most alarming trend is the surge of fires within the ecosystem's ultimate strongholds:

• Protection Forests: Surged from 6.3 thousand hectares in July to 80.5 thousand hectares in August.

• Conservation Forests: Increased significantly from 13.6 thousand hectares in July to 79.3 thousand hectares in August.

• Key Biodiversity Areas (KBA): Accounted for 73.2 thousand hectares (5.55%) of the total newly burned area.

Governance failures are also evident within the moratorium zones. A total of 342.1 thousand hectares (25.89%) of the burned area was located within PIPPIB (Peta Indikatif Penundaan Pemberian Izin Baru / Indicative Map for the Suspension of New Business Licenses) zones, which includes PIPPIB Forest Areas (189 thousand ha), PIPPIB Peatlands (144 thousand ha), and PIPPIB Primary Forests (7.9 thousand ha). This proves that protection through moratorium mapping has not yet functioned as a physical shield capable of halting the blazes on the ground.

Corporate Accountability: Half the Fires in Concession Areas

At this point, we should fully understand that forest and land fires are not natural disasters. Numerous studies have shown that fire occurrences in Indonesia represent a governance failure of land-based industries. A total of 51.14%, or 675.7 thousand hectares, of the indicative burned area directly overlaps with permit and concession areas.

Indicative Burned Area Overlap in Permit and Concession Zones (Total: 675.7 Thousand ha)

Observation Period: January 1 to August 31, 2026

Oil palm plantation permits rank first among concession entities affected by fires, covering 246.0 thousand hectares (36.41%). This is accompanied by overlapping permit areas spanning 166.2 thousand hectares (24.60%) and Forestry Business Utilization Licenses (PBPH) spanning 137.1 thousand hectares (20.29%). Monthly increases were also sharp: the indicative burned area in concession zones jumped from 9.5 thousand hectares in July to 216 thousand hectares in August 2026.

This situation is further exacerbated by weak law enforcement. The weakening of the strict liability principle (absolute liability without needing to prove intent or negligence) which was previously strictly regulated under Article 88 of Law No. 32/2009 on Environmental Protection and Management (PPLH) following the enactment of the Job Creation Law, has created legal loopholes. These loopholes make it significantly harder to establish proof and demand accountability from permit holders for fires occurring within their concession boundaries.

Peatland Crisis: Attack on Carbon's Last Stronghold

Peatland ecosystems, which store massive carbon reserves, are in a state of emergency. Fires within Peatland Ecosystem Functions (Fungsi Ekosistem Gambut / FEG) reached 447.6 thousand hectares, or 33.87% of the total newly burned area.

Indicative Burned Area Overlap in Permit and Concession Zones (Total: 675.7 Thousand ha)

From these data, it is evident that protected status offers no guarantee whatsoever. A total of 216.4 thousand hectares of peatlands under Peatland Protection Functions (FLEG) burned severely. The burned area within this function surged from just 9.0 thousand hectares in July to 173.0 thousand hectares in August 2026 alone. Meanwhile, Peatland Cultivation Functions (FBEG) saw a burned area of 206.4 thousand hectares in August alone, out of a total cumulative area of 230.2 thousand hectares from January to August.

This peatland vulnerability is directly tied to the effectiveness of restoration policies and institutional governance. Changes in governance and institutional dynamics such as the weakening and dissolution of the Peatland and Mangrove Restoration Agency (BRGM) and the absence of any other dedicated entity focused on peatland ecosystems have directly led to a decline in the maintenance of canal blocks and rewetting efforts at the field level.

Strategic Impact: Climate Targets Up in Flames

The impact of this expanding burned area also strikes Indonesia's pledged climate commitments. There are at least three major blows to Indonesia's climate commitments resulting from these forest and land fires:

• Threat to the FOLU Net Sink 2030 Target: An area of 511.3 thousand hectares (38.70%) of the burned area lies directly within the Operational Plan (RO) zone of the FOLU Net Sink 2030. The burning of this area threatens the credibility of Indonesia's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

  
  

• Risk to Food and Energy Security: A total of 241.0 thousand hectares (18.24%) of the indicative burned area overlaps with national food and energy reserve zones. The majority of fires in these zones originated within Forestry Business Utilization License (PBPH) corridors (111 thousand ha) and non-permit corridors (78 thousand ha).

  
  

• Threat to Natural Forests & Rehabilitation: The fires also consumed 183.8 thousand hectares of primary and secondary natural forest cover (13.91%), as well as 122.8 thousand hectares designated under the General Forest and Land Rehabilitation Plan (RURHL).

Observation Period: January 1 to August 31, 2026

Epicenter of the Crisis: West Kalimantan and Ketapang

Geographically, Kalimantan Island is the most severely affected region. West Kalimantan Province serves as the epicenter of the crisis, with a cumulative burned area reaching 388.7 thousand hectares. It is followed by Central Kalimantan in second place with 245.1 thousand hectares and South Papua in third place with 149.0 thousand hectares.

Most Severely Affected Provinces (Indicative Burned Area Jan–Aug 2026)

Most Severely Affected Regencies (Indicative Burned Area Jan–Aug 2026)

At the regency level, Ketapang Regency (West Kalimantan) became "Ground Zero" of the national crisis, with its indicative burned area surpassing 163.6 thousand hectares. Ketapang serves as a clear example of failure in early prevention and rapid response at the ground level, where fires were left to expand until they scorched hundreds of thousands of hectares of landscape. Although regencies are on the front lines of the fires, it should be noted that control over the long-term processes that create land vulnerability to forest fires namely, the granting of large-scale land and forest clearing permits frequently rests in the hands of the central government, particularly following the centralization of licensing during the Job Creation Law era.

Conclusion & Recommendations

There is no time left to delay action. The extreme surge in August 2026 is not merely the impact of a prolonged drought, but a stark alarm signaling systemic failures in land governance. If left unaddressed, Indonesia's climate targets (FOLU Net Sink 2030) and biodiversity protection pledges will become mere formal documents on paper burned to ashes. The government must immediately shift from a reactive approach toward transformative measures. To respond to this crisis, the following are priority recommendations for the Government:

A. Short-Term Measures (Immediate Response & Law Enforcement)

• Strengthening Science-Based Decision-Making: Actively involve BMKG and the scientific community in every daily strategic decision. Suppression and mitigation policies must no longer be based on assumptions, but on precise climate data and spatial modeling.

  
  

• Collaborative Data Integration: Integrate all monitoring databases, including civil society data (such as MADANI's AIT modeling), into the national command system (SIPONGI). Closing the data gap between the government and the public is key to response accuracy on the ground.

  
  

• Uncompromising Corporate Law Enforcement: Strictly apply civil, criminal, and administrative legal instruments against companies whose concessions are identified as burned. Restore and strengthen the uncompromising application of the strict liability principle pursuant to Article 88 of the PPLH Law to ensure corporations bear full responsibility for their managed areas.

B. Medium-Term Measures (Restructuring & Permanent Prevention)

• Peat Ecosystem Management System: Rebuild a comprehensive peatland governance system, including institutional strengthening focused on peat restoration, canal block maintenance, and rewetting. Peatland Ecosystem Protection Function (FLEG) areas must be treated as red zones strictly prohibited from any form of drainage activities.

  
  

• Moratorium Governance Reform: Evaluate the effectiveness of PIPPIB (Indicative Map for the Suspension of New Business Licenses). The moratorium must be accompanied by compliance audits and strict field monitoring across all PIPPIB areas.

  
  

• Inclusive and Equitable Policies: Ensure forest and land fire management adopts a social justice perspective for vulnerable groups. The government must design early detection and evacuation systems accessible to women, persons with disabilities, and indigenous communities, who have historically borne the heaviest health and economic burdens while remaining excluded from protection spaces.

  
  

• Strengthening Science-Based Decision-Making: Actively involve BMKG and the scientific community in every daily strategic decision. Suppression and mitigation policies must no longer be based on assumptions, but on precise climate data and spatial modeling.

  
  

The 2026 forest and land fires are a test of integrity for Indonesia's climate commitments. Without the political courage to crack down on perpetrators within concession zones and the willingness to embrace public data and local knowledge, the cycle of fires will continue to repeat, continuously scorching our ecological and economic future.