The Government of Indonesia is currently preparing its Second Nationally Determined Contribution (Second NDC/SNDC) as part of its efforts to address global climate change. This document marks an important milestone in Indonesia's commitment to tackling global warming and serves as an update to the country's previous climate pledge, the Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (Enhanced NDC/ENDC).

Although several sectors have increased their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets under the Enhanced NDC, the Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) sector remains the primary contributor, accounting for approximately 55% of Indonesia's unconditional emissions reduction target.

Before the Second NDC is submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat, several aspects of the Enhanced NDC should be reviewed to strengthen Indonesia's climate commitments in the FOLU sector.

1. Set More Ambitious Emissions Reduction Targets

There is still significant room to strengthen emissions reduction targets for the FOLU sector so that they align with Indonesia's FOLU Net Sink 2030 strategy.

Indonesia's FOLU Net Sink 2030 target is considerably more ambitious than the Enhanced NDC, aiming for -140 MtCO₂e, compared with only -15 MtCO₂e under the Enhanced NDC. Therefore, the FOLU target in the Second NDC should be increased to support the global effort to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Read also: Meeting Energy Sector Ambition in the Second NDC Without Sacrificing Forests and Land

2. Reduce the Deforestation Quota

The Enhanced NDC still allows for relatively high levels of deforestation—up to 359,000 hectares per year under the unconditional scenario and 175,000 hectares per year under the conditional scenario supported by international assistance.

These targets are inconsistent with the global commitment to halt deforestation by 2030 and do not reflect Indonesia's recent success in reducing deforestation rates.

To achieve the FOLU Net Sink 2030 target, Indonesia effectively has no remaining room for natural forest deforestation. Therefore, the Second NDC should become more ambitious by substantially reducing—or ideally eliminating—the permitted deforestation quota, particularly for natural forests.

3. Increase Peatland Restoration Targets

Protecting and restoring peatland ecosystems is one of the most effective strategies for reducing emissions from the FOLU sector while also preventing forest and peatland fires.

Under the Enhanced NDC, Indonesia aims to restore 2 million hectares of peatlands by 2030. This falls short of the 2.72 million hectares targeted under the FOLU Net Sink 2030 strategy.

To strengthen climate commitments within the Second NDC, peatland restoration targets should be increased by including previously burned peatlands that are not currently prioritized, including areas located within concessions and licensed land.

4. Align Energy Sector Emissions Reduction Policies with the FOLU Sector

Climate mitigation policies in the energy sector should be aligned with FOLU objectives to prevent land-use conversion and ensure that energy transition efforts do not undermine forest conservation goals.

Several Enhanced NDC targets deserve further review, including the use of biomass, palm oil-based biodiesel (FAME), electric vehicles, and the expansion of renewable energy through electrification.

By 2030, the Enhanced NDC targets the use of 9 million tons of biomass for coal power plant co-firing. However, research indicates that producing enough wood pellets to support this policy would require an additional land area equivalent to 35 times the size of Jakarta.

Read also: Is It Really Important for Indonesia to Develop a Second NDC?

The Enhanced NDC also targets the production of 18 million kiloliters of FAME biodiesel under the B40 blending mandate. If palm oil remains the primary feedstock—as outlined in the current Enhanced NDC—the risks of land conversion and natural forest loss cannot be fully eliminated. In 2023, approximately 30,000 hectares of forest were converted into oil palm plantations, representing an increase compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, the expansion of Indonesia's nickel industry to support electrification also threatens the country's remaining natural forests. Around 500,000 hectares of natural forest are still located within nickel mining and smelter concession areas.

Additional pressure on forests may also arise from the government's plan to develop up to 2 million hectares of sugarcane plantations in Merauke, South Papua, to produce bioethanol.

For these reasons, it is essential to align the energy and FOLU components of the Second NDC by developing an integrated upstream-to-downstream land-use roadmap, strengthening regulations that protect all remaining natural forests and peatland ecosystems, and incorporating circular economy principles into Indonesia's climate strategy.

By strengthening these four key areas, the Second NDC can become a more robust framework for protecting Indonesia's forests while safeguarding communities from the worsening impacts of climate change.